United States Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We expect healthy growth across all freight modes in 2016, supported by positive GDP ratesand improvement in private consumption, as well higher demand from main trade partners. Lower oilprices translating to lower fuel prices are increasing disposable income and consequently domesticconsumption. This increase in consumer demand for imported goods will benefit both road and air freightwhile rail freight continues to accommodate high volumes of agricultural exports, oil transport and otherheavy industry outputs. The US largest container port, Los Angeles, will recover from last year's negativegrowth with serious labour disputes leading to congestion resolved.
Key Updates And Forecasts
An agreement was reached in January 2016 to increase freedom in trade of goods and services betweenthe US and Cuba that will act as a boost to volumes traded and freight modes, particularly air andshipping.
Following a decision by the US Department of Transport in February 2016, the US-Mexico freight zoneswere expanded to the benefit of road freight that now have more access points.
Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are undergoing upgrades mainly focused on the ability to handlemegaships from Asian trade partners. This includes additional cranes and facility modifications while atthe port of Long Beach the issue of congestion is also addressed with an automated facility separatingtrucking and vessel operations under construction.
We forecast total road freight volumes will rise by 6.3% y-o-y over 2016 to reach 151.8bn tonnes.
We forecast total rail freight volumes will rise by 3.8% y-o-y over 2016 to reach 1.9bn tonnes.
We forecast total air freight volumes will rise by 3.4% y-o-y over 2016 to reach 10.1mn tonnes.
We forecast total inland waterway freight volumes will rise by 2.8% y-o-y over 2016 to reach 0.63bntonnes.
Port of Los Angeles container traffic will increase by 2.6% to 8.32mn TEUs.
Top trade partners will be the Canada, Mexico, China, Japan and Germany.
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