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United States Country Risk Report Q4 2018

United States Country Risk Report Q4 2018

The short-to-medium-term growth outlook for the US economy remains constructive due to a tightening labour market, a continued recovery in private invest-ment and expansionary fiscal policy.

Wider budget deficits and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio are on the cards in the years ahead, as tax cuts lower revenue but are not accompanied by offsetting reduc-tions in economic growth or entitlement spending.

The opposition Democratic Party's chances of winning at least one chamber of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections are better than 50%, meaning that legislative gridlock in 2019-20 looks increasingly likely.

Key Risks

Foreign Policy: The White House's aggressive trade negotiating tactics risk beginning a war of protectionism with the US's major trading partners, including China.

Trump Ignores Congress: Rising legislative gridlock could see Trump embark on a string of executive orders dealing with foreign policy, trade and immigration, which could have far-reaching economic and financial market implications.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Summary View
Quarterly Outlook: US Economy On Steady Footing, But Trade Risks Loom
Economic Growth Outlook
US Growth To Remain Solid
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Erratic US Policy Heightens Risks Of Trade War
TABLE: TRUMP'S TRADE TEAM
TABLE: US EXPORTS FACING RETALIATION IN RESPONSE TO STEEL/ALUMINIUM TARIFFS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Fed Signalling More Hawkish Tone
TABLE: FED'S 'DOT PLOT' ESTIMATES (%)
TABLE: CLEAR BULLISH SHIFT IN THE FED'S LANGUAGE
United States Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsMonetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2017)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Upside Risks To The Dollar?
10-Year Forecast
The US Economy To 2027
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Assessing Next Steps In The US-North Korea Rapprochement
TABLE: MAIN SOURCES OF DISPUTE BETWEEN NORTH KOREA AND UNITED STATES
Long-Term Political Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: UNITED STATES – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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