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United States Country Risk Report 20 2018

United States Country Risk Report 20 2018

The short-to-medium term growth outlook for the US economy re-mains constructive due to a tightening labour market and a continued recovery in private investment. Tax reform will provide an additional boost to 2018 growth.

However, we expect wider budget deficits and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio in the years ahead as tax cuts lower revenue; it will not, how-ever, be accompanied by offsetting reductions in economic growth or entitlement spending.

The opposition Democratic Party's chances of winning at least one chamber of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections are greater than 50%, meaning that legislative gridlock in 2019-20 looks in-creasingly likely.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Activity To Accelerate As 2018 Progresses
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
No Trade War Yet, But Protectionist Moves Raise Stakes
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Fed On Course To Deliver Six Hikes In 2018-19
TABLE: FEDERAL RESERVE OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE – MEDIAN PROJECTIONS FROM MARCH 2018 MEETING
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2017)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Impact Of A Trade War On The USD
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The US Economy To 2027
Cyclical Upturn Will Need Structural Reforms To Make Stronger Growth Sustainable
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Trump Foreign Policy Facing Pivotal Tests In Q2 2018
Long-Term Political Outlook
Fiscal Concerns And Populism To Drive Political Debate
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: UNITED STATES – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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