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United States Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

United States Consumer & Retail Report Q4 2017

BMI View:

While we retain our broadly positive outlook for the US consumer heading towards 2018, amida tight labour market, robust consumer confidence and stronger economic growth, we note a number ofheadwinds to this view. Mediocre wage growth, higher oil prices from Storm Harvey, and ongoing policyparalysis in Washington, which will likely disappoint households and lead to watered-down tax cuts,present downside risks to consumer spending prospects.

Latest Developments

Our Country Risk team have downgraded our 2018 real GDP growth forecast for the US from 2.2% to2.1%, below consensus expectations of 2.3% (which in turn have come down from 2.4% since thebeginning of 2017).

While we are generally constructive on the prospects for US consumers, we expect a solid albeitunimpressive growth trajectory for private consumption ahead. We forecast real private consumptiongrowth to continue to moderate from 3.6% in 2015, and 2.7% in 2016, to 2.7% in 2017, and subsequently2.2% in 2018.

BMI View
Consumer Outlook
Consumer SWOT
Industry Forecast
Consumer Spending
Total Household Spending
Table: Total Household Spending (United States 2015-2021)
Essential/Non-Essential Spending
Table: Essential and Non Essential Spending (United States 2015-2021)
Food, Drink And Tobacco
Table: Food and drinks (non-alcoholic, alcoholic and tobacco) spending (United States 2015-2021)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing and Footwear Spending (United States 2015-2021)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (United States 2015-2021)
Personal Care And Effects
Table: Personal Care and Effects Spending (United States 2015-2021)
Tourism Spending
Household Characteristics
Table: Household Income Data (United States 2014-2021)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (2014-2021)
Market Overview
Retail Trends
Clothing& Footwear
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Selected Department Stores
E-Commerce And Online Marketplaces
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers And Online Marketplaces
Pharmacies And Drugstores
Table: Selected Pharmacies And Drugstores
Shopping Malls
Industry Forecast Methodology

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