While we think that the US consumer remains relatively strong, there are some growing risks to this narrative and morelimited job gains will likely cap the pace of wage growth and private consumption over 2020. We forecast real GDP growth of 1.8% in2020, down from 2.2% in 2019. This will result from a number of negative pressures, which include the continued escalation in tradetensions and the negative effects these are having on the US manufacturing sector; the slower pace of job gains; less fiscal impulseas spending slows and policy stagnation arising from the ongoing impeachment process. Private consumption is forecast to rise by1.9% in 2020, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2019.
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