United States Agribusiness Q4 2018
We have made a number of revisions to our production and consumption forecasts across the US agribusiness marketswe track in this update, with the majority being to the upside. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in2018, owing to the poultry and beef sectors, while we have revised up our soybean and corn production forecasts for 2017/18. Ourview on the dairy sector is largely positive, with butter forecasted to outperform both in terms of output and demand. Over the longterm, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex - a view supported by upwards revisions to bothour production and consumption forecasts in this quarterly update. Our soybean forecasts remain unchanged and we continue tosee the crop producing an even larger production surplus across our forecast period. In contrast, we see sugar producing a growingtrade deficit across our five-year forecast period. We believe that grains production will generally stagnate because of a smallerplanted area on the back of lower prices, but within this we expect corn to outperform wheat in the grains agribusiness complex.Our cotton forecasts, meanwhile, continue to strengthen. US President Donald Trump presents moderate-to-strong downside risksto our production and consumption forecasts, and concerns about trade will remain a key feature over the coming quarters, withthe outcome of NAFTA talks a threat to our views.
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