We have revised our trade forecasts for our five-year outlook. The main concern remainsuncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiation process ahead of the UK's 2019 withdrawal from the EUand the FX volatility that continues to hamper trade and the economy. Rail freight will enter structuraldecline in terms of volumes carried as the phasing out of coal power capacity hits its main commodity.
Road freight volumes will remain central to the UK's internal logistics and domestic economy and the airfreight sector continues to show promising prospects.
Latest Updates And Forecasts
Total real trade levels will grow by an estimated 2.75% in 2017. Exports in 2017 will grow by 4.20%compared to just 1.30% for imports. Nominal trade values will fall to USD1.51trn, but we expect a returnto growth over the next five years as the currency finds a stable momentum. By 2021, nominal trade willreach USD1.84trn.
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