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United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2018

United Kingdom Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

The triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017 will usher in a period of heightened political and economic uncertainty, particularly given newfound political instability following the June 8 2017 snap election, and the UK government's ongoing intention to pursue a 'hard' Brexit – leaving the EU single market and customs union. A 'hard' Brexit with a transitional arrangement in place is our core view for how negotiations play out.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Consumption Surge Preventing Sharper Slowdown
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Brexit Implications I
'Cliff Edge' Brexit: Macro Implications
Brexit Implications II
'Cliff Edge' Brexit: Impact On UK Sectors
TABLE: AGRIBUSINESS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: AUTOS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: RETAIL: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: INFRASTRUCTURE: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: PHARMACEUTICALS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: METALS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: OIL & GAS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: POWER & RENEWABLES: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
TABLE: TELECOMS: IMPACTS OF A 'CLIFF EDGE' BREXIT
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Structural Factors To Keep The Current Account In The Red
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: IMPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Bank Of England On Pause
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Bumpy Ride Ahead For Sterling
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The UK Economy To 2027
Brexit Not Necessarily A Drag On Long-Term Trend Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Long-Term Political Outlook
Risks To Policy Continuity Have Eased
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
EM Growth To Accelerate In 2018 While DMs Plateau
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

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