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United Kingdom Agribusiness Q3 2018

United Kingdom Agribusiness Q3 2018

BMI View:

We continue to believe that Brexit will be a net negative for the UK agriculture industry because of short-termuncertainty, followed by lower revenues and increased costs owing to less favourable subsidies, trade and labour conditions. Whileour forecasts for the UK agribusiness sector across both production and consumption remain unchanged in this quarterly update,we continue to highlight that our forecasts remain susceptible to change as the impact of Brexit becomes clearer and the deadlinefor leaving the EU draws closer. Amid all the uncertainty, we expect grains to be the most resilient sector, a view supported by anupwards revision of our forecasts for wheat production and consumption across our forecast period in our last quarterlyupdate. Despite this, we believe that wheat will continue to suffer from lower subsidies and the bottoming out of prices due to itslow production costs and greater ease of diversifying trade relationships. Sugar will be a clear underperformer as the UK will struggleto fully take advantage of the EU quota removal in 2017 while failing to offset this loss by sourcing alternative trade partners. Thelivestock and dairy sectors will be able to supply a greater share of domestic demand while benefiting from higher prices, althoughthe costs of production will also be higher going forward.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Brexit: Agribusiness Scenarios
Grains Outlook
Livestock Outlook
Sugar Outlook
Dairy Outlook
Market Strategy
Monthly Commodities Strategy
Upstream Analysis
Europe Machinery Outlook
Europe GM Outlook
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Regional Overview
Five Key Themes For Europe Agribusiness
Competitive Landscape
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Agribusiness Methodology

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