United Arab Emirates Power Q1 2018
BMI View: After a slowdown from extremely strong growth to a period of relatively weak economic
performance, we forecast that the UAE's economy will pick up fresh momentum in 2018, to a real GDP
growth rate of 2.8%, after 1.8% in 2017. This supports our upbeat outlook for the trajectory of power
generation and capacity, which we leave largely unchanged this quarter. A diversification of the energy
mix, towards nuclear and solar, should reduce the contribution of thermal energy to the overall power mix
from 99.3% in 2017 to 73.2% in 2026, even as overall generation grows by an average of 4.4% per annum.
Strong overall growth in capacity and generation, the rising diversification of the energy mix and low levels
of economic and political risk feed into the UAE continuing to top our risk/ratings league table not only for
the Middle East and Africa region, but also on a global basis.