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United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q4 2015

United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q4 2015

BMI View: We expect continued robust growth across the UAE's freight modes in the near and over ourmedium-term forecast period to 2019. Although growth will not be spectacular in most instances, this is areflection of base effects and the maturity of the market. Massive investment into freight transportinfrastructure - not least the development of the UAE's nascent rail network - will ensure that growth infreight volumes continues far beyond our forecast period. This will be driven not only by domestic demand,but will also be massively informed by the UAE's becoming one of the world's foremost global transhipmenthubs.

Trade across the UAE will benefit from a resilient growth outlook, and we forecast a 6.4% real expansion intotal trade in 2015, followed by 5.1% in 2016. Although this is slower than growth of 7.3% recorded in2014, it is nonetheless robust given the fall in the oil price, and is predicated on our assumption thatproduction will be maintained. We expect the UAE will continue to record impressive rates of growth overthe coming years, even in a context of lower oil prices. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 and3.8% in 2016, broadly in line with the previous three years, but above consensus estimates of 3.7% and3.6% as collected by Bloomberg. The oil sector will see only minimal gains as weaker prices weigh oninvestment, however, this will not have a significant bearing on the non-oil sector with construction andprivate consumption set to continue growing apace.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Freight Transport
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
Table: Trade Overview (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
Table: The UAE's Top Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Table: The UAE's Top Export Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Aramex
Emirates SkyCargo
Etihad Cargo
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Some Risks Remain
Table: UAE - Political Table
Long-Term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Private Spending Growth To Remain High
Modest Growth For Oil Sector
Table: Economic Activity (United Arab Emirates 2010-2019)
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources

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