United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q4 2015
BMI View: We expect continued robust growth across the UAE's freight modes in the near and over ourmedium-term forecast period to 2019. Although growth will not be spectacular in most instances, this is areflection of base effects and the maturity of the market. Massive investment into freight transportinfrastructure - not least the development of the UAE's nascent rail network - will ensure that growth infreight volumes continues far beyond our forecast period. This will be driven not only by domestic demand,but will also be massively informed by the UAE's becoming one of the world's foremost global transhipmenthubs.
Trade across the UAE will benefit from a resilient growth outlook, and we forecast a 6.4% real expansion intotal trade in 2015, followed by 5.1% in 2016. Although this is slower than growth of 7.3% recorded in2014, it is nonetheless robust given the fall in the oil price, and is predicated on our assumption thatproduction will be maintained. We expect the UAE will continue to record impressive rates of growth overthe coming years, even in a context of lower oil prices. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 and3.8% in 2016, broadly in line with the previous three years, but above consensus estimates of 3.7% and3.6% as collected by Bloomberg. The oil sector will see only minimal gains as weaker prices weigh oninvestment, however, this will not have a significant bearing on the non-oil sector with construction andprivate consumption set to continue growing apace.
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