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United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report Q1 2019

United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Real GDP growth will broadly accelerate over the coming quarters, driven primarily by rising oil production and new fiscal stimulus spending in Abu Dhabi

That said, Dubai will also see gradually improving conditions after a prolonged slump, and will take over as the main growth bright spot in 2020 when its long-awaited World Expo commences The Expo will offer a strong boost to activity in the crucial retail sector


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Oil Gains To Drive Near-Term UAE Economic Growth
Abu Dhabi Economic Growth Outlook
Abu Dhabi Growth To Accelerate On Oil Gains
Dubai Economic Growth Outlook
Dubai Economic Growth To Rebound In 2019
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
UAE Inflation To Decelerate In 2019
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2017
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
United Arab Emirates Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The UAE Economy To 2027
Greater Caution, Slower Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
UAE To Remain Open To Foreign Labour
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Stable Internal Political Climate To Persist
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Continued Growth Divergence And Policy Risks Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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