Ukraine Tourism Report Q3 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

2014 proved to be a seriously damaging year for the Ukrainian tourism industry, with inbound arrivals andoccupancy rates falling to unseen depths, putting high amounts of pressure on hoteliers in the country andthe industry as a whole. While 2015 so far has been slightly better, it is unlikely that the industry willrecover to pre-crisis levels by 2019, especially given that the Crimean Peninsula, which is now consideredpart of Russia, was one of Ukraine's leading tourism destinations. Ultimately the country represents asignificantly higher risk for investors than other countries in the region.

With geopolitical tensions in the region still high, the risks facing Ukraine cannot be underestimated.

Despite improved transport links, the travel industry in the country is likely to face a difficult five years,especially as the previously important Russian source market is unlikely to recover to levels seen in 2013,and there is not likely to be a compensating increase from other countries. In the long term, BMI expectsstabilisation and even the beginnings of a recovery in the tourism sector, but this is dependent onstabilisation of the country as a whole.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Tourism
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals '000 (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Table: Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Departures '000 (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Travel
Table: Receipts For Transport & Travel (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Table: Breakdown Of Methods Of Tourist Travel (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Hotels
Table: Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotels
International Hotels
Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions
Global Macro Outlook
Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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