Ukraine Metals Report 2016
After back-to-back years of contraction in both production and consumption in the metals sector in theUkraine in 2013 and 2014, the sector turned a corner last year. Despite being rocked by the ongoing conflictwith Russia and the subsequent political and economic uncertainty BMI estimates that the sector bouncedback to post a 3.5% y-o-y gain in output and a 3.1% y-o-y increase in use. Going forward, Ukraine's metalssector will see modest growth over our forecast period to the end of 2018, with a handful of new projects toincrease production growth. Production will not return to pre-crisis highs, however, due to globalovercapacity and steel prices not making substantive gains over 2013 - they have, however, since improved.
There are no major expansions on the cards, and no major players in either the aluminium or steel industrieshave announced substantial investment plans.
Figures recorded during the first eight months of 2015 have certainly been supportive of this view. Metalstrader Ukrainian Mining and Metallurgical Company has published data that shows that Ukrainian exportsof steel products grew by 2.3% y-o-y to 17.9mn tonnes in January-August 2015 (latest available data).
Ukraine's exports of pig iron totalled 1.6mn tonnes in the reported period, up by 22% y-o-y during the sametime period.
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