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Ukraine Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Ukraine Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Following three years of severe recession from 2014-2016, Ukraine's economic recovery over the coming years will progress at a sluggish pace, as the separatist conflict and trade blockade in the Donbas, as well as lacklustre structural reform implementation, continues to weigh on the country's economic potential.

Ongoing cooperation with the IMF will ensure fiscal and debt sustainability over the short term, yet over the longer term, structural reforms and a more broad based macroeconomic recovery are needed to ensure financial stability.

Monetary conditions will continue to stabilise as the Ukrainian National Banks inflation targeting credibility improves and capital controls are gradually removed.

Future UAH depreciation will be a lot less severe, as previous devaluations have brought the currency closer to fair value.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Strong Domestic Growth To Alleviate External Headwinds
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2018
Monetary Policy
Easing Inflation And Accelerating Structural Reforms To Support Monetary Easing
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Debt Sustainability Risks Ease Under New Reform-Minded Government
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Currency Forecast
UAH: Surging Foreign Demand For Government Securities Underpin Stronger Forecasts
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECASTS
Ukraine Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Ukrainian Economy To 2028
Colossal Structural Reform Needed To See Through The Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: 2018 WORLD BANK EASE OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Zelenskiy's Dual Mandate Heralds Faster Reforms
Long-Term Political Outlook
Eastern Separatism To Persist; Reforms To Face Bumpy Path
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Labour Costs
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
Legal Environment
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
Global Macro Outlook
Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: UKRAINE – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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