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Ukraine Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Ukraine Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Following three years of severe recession from 2014-2016, Ukraine's economic recovery over the next two years will progress at a sluggish pace, as the separatist conflict and trade blockade in the Donbas, as well as lacklustre structural reform implementation, continues to weigh on the country's economic potential.

Ongoing cooperation with the IMF will ensure fiscal and debt sustainability over the short term, yet over the longer term, structural reforms and a more broad based macroeconomic recovery are needed to ensure financial stability.

Monetary conditions will continue to stabilise as the Ukrainian National Banks inflation targeting credibility improves and capital controls are gradually removed.

Future UAH depreciation will be a lot less severe, as previous devaluations have brought the currency closer to fair value.

While political risks will remain elevated, we expect the government of President Petro Poroshenko to serve its full term until November 2019.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Ukrainian Growth Picks Up Pace As Risks Rise In 2019
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Ukrainian Monetary Stability Faces Downside Risks If IMF Negotiations Fail
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Nearing IMF Agreement To Support Ukrainian Debt Sustainability
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Ukraine Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
UAH: Seasonal Weakness Exacerbated By EM-Sell Off
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Ukrainian Economy To 2027
Structural Reforms Needed To See Through The Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: 2018 WORLD BANK EASE OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Tymoshenko Well Positioned To Win Ukrainian Presidential Election
Long-Term Political Outlook
Eastern Separatism To Persist; Reforms To Face Bumpy Path
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: UKRAINE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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