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Ukraine Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Ukraine Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Following three years of severe recession from 2014-2016, Ukraine's economic recovery over the next two years will progress at a sluggish pace, as the separatist conflict and trade blockade in the Donbas, as well as lacklustre structural reform implementation, continues to weigh on the country's economic potential.

Ongoing cooperation with the IMF will ensure fiscal and debt sustain-ability over the short term, yet over the longer term, structural reforms and a more broad based macroeconomic recovery are needed to ensure financial stability.

Monetary conditions will continue to stabilise as the Ukrainian National Banks inflation targeting credibility improves and capital controls are gradually removed.

Future UAH depreciation will be a lot less severe, as previous de-valuations have brought the currency closer to fair value.

While political risks will remain elevated, we expect the government of President Petro Poroshenko to serve its full term until November 2019.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Domestic Demand And Rebounding Exports To Support Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
NBU Remaining Hawkish Amid Elevated Inflation
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Stability Risks Rise As Debt Repayment Burden Increases
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Ukrainian Economy To 2027
Long-Term Growth Outlook Remains Bleak
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: 2018 WORLD BANK EASE OF DOING BUSINESS INDEX
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Rising Populism To Increase Political Uncertainty Ahead Of 2019 Elections
Long-Term Political Outlook
Eastern Separatism To Persist; Reforms To Face Bumpy Path
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME RISK IN UKRAINE
Education
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: UKRAINE – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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