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Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We have left our core outlook for the Ukrainian agricultural market unchanged in our Q2 2016report update. We maintain a negative outlook for the sector owing to a range of concerns. All agriculturalmarkets will be negatively affected by the poor macroeconomic fundamentals in Ukraine. There will belimited investment into the country over the coming quarters given the unstable political and economicsituation, which will affect agricultural production over our forecast period. Russia's ban on imports fromUkraine will weigh on production for the dairy and livestock industries, as Russia represents one ofUkraine's largest agricultural export markets. Furthermore, significant currency depreciation will limitimports, hitting input use and domestic investment. However, Ukrainian farmers will fail to benefit from theexport opportunities linked to this weaker currency due to export restrictions and lack of resources to scaleup production in the medium term.

Key Forecasts

Corn production will decline by 17.4% in 2016 to reach a total value of 23.5mn tonnes.

We are estimating the wheat crop in 2016/17 to decline by 11.5% to reach 23.0mn tonnes.

The livestock and dairy sectors will perform poorly in 2015/16 due to macroeconomic unsoundness.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Ukraine
Grains Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Ukraine
Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Ukraine
Livestock Production & Consumption Outlook
Table: Risks To Outlook
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Ukraine 2012
2020)
Commodity Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities
Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Europe Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Companies
Sales Forecasts By Region (companybased estimates)
Europe GM Outlook
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators
Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 20122019)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 20122019)
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecast (Ukraine 20142019)
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecast (Ukraine 20142019)
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 20142019)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 20142019)
Regional Overview
Competitive Landscape
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology

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