BMI View: Despite the mandatory round of SIM registrations in H217 leading to a significant loss in subscriptions, the effects were smaller than expected. We expect the mobile market to return quickly to its long-term growth trend, driven by low penetration rates. Despite only modest uptake of advanced data networks, mobile financial services are likely to remain the primary VAS in the mobile market. With low urbanisation rates, high dependency ratios and chronic poverty upselling of premium services are limited.
Low disposable incomes and hence low access to devices will remain a long-term drag on the market, weighing on its true growth potential. Ample organic growth opportunities are the core long-term upside risks for growth in the market.