BMI View: Improving market conditions will boost our optimistic outlook for Uganda's consumer market.
The developing credit market environment as well as an expanding labour force will fuel an uptick inconsumer spending over our five-year forecast period to 2021. Albeit, we do note the dominance of lowincomehouseholds will continue to concentrate expenditure preferences within the essentials category, withrestricted spending on big-ticket purchases.
Uganda's consumer outlook will rebound strongly over 2017, with real private consumption growing by5.2% from 1.0% in 2016. This will be in line with the country's improved economic growth outlook overthe coming quarters. Over 2017 and 2018, our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP growth will rise to4.8% in 2017 and further to 5.5% in 2018, up from 2.3% in 2016. Our view stems from the fact that themain factors that led to the economic growth will start to fade, primarily severe drought conditions, lowgovernment investment and slowing private sector credit expansion.