Uganda's financial and insurance sector will remain under-developed even with above-trend growth. In 2017, financial sector gross value added (GVA) will grow 14.4% in local currency terms and 10.7% in US dollar terms to UGX2.26trn (USD0.63bn), following a recession in the sector in 2016. Over the next 10 years, we envisage the sector will grow to UGX5.81trn (USD1.49bn). However, the sector's contribution to the overall economy will not significantly increase, rising from just 2.43% of total GVA in 2017 to 2.5% by 2026.
Uganda has an under-developed financial sector with a population that is under-banked and under-insured. Having gone through a period of liberalisation, the effort is now on expanding services to a broader range of customers with a focus on the growing middle-class and a business community that is primarily comprised of micro, small- and medium-sized enterprises. There is substantial room for growth with the expansion of capital markets likely to unlock new finance streams, retail investors growing in number and life insurance set to rise in prominence.