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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2015

BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves, Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increaseproduction. With relatively small domestic consumption, Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gasexports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growthrate of 8.2% a year, meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. Thecountry's rising export potential is supported by significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom itshares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, as well as likely lifting of sanctions from Iran.

The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

Turkmenistan's state information agency reported an 11.2% increase in gas production in 2014, this hasalso given upside to our forecasts. The costs of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)pipeline project are likely to exceed USD7.6bn, according to India's Ministry of Petroleum and NaturalGas. The TAPI pipeline project is estimated to be 1,814km long, while the project implementation isexpected to begin in 2015. Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmengaz, Afghanistan's Gas Corporation,Pakistan's Inter State Gas Systems and Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) have recentlyestablished the TAPI Limited operating company, which will own the pipeline in the future.Thepipeline is likely to export up to 33bn cbm of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan,Pakistan and India over 30 years of operation. The pipeline will help Turkmenistan expand gas exports.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Upstream Projects
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China
Regional Minnows Holding Up
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Upstream Projects
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Table: TAPI Timeline
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Downstream Players
Company Profile
Eni
Dragon Oil
Other Summaries
Global Industry Overview
Global Energy Market Overview
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
Appendix
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
Turkmenistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Turkmenistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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