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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2016

BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves, Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increaseproduction and exports, notably to China. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year, meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising export potential is supported by significant strengthening ofties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline.

We expect oil reserves will significantly deplete over our forecast period as production remains high butlittle progress is made towards resolving the Caspian maritime border dispute. Gas reserves will remainlargely stagnant despite production increases, given the newly discovered mega-fields in the southeast ofthe country and potential for significant new discoveries in the area.

A renewed emphasis on international investment, along with developments by Turkmenebit, has lead to aslow but progressive increase in oil production. This will endure over the coming years. Largerproduction growth within our forecast period, however, will be impossible until a sustainable agreementis reached between Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on Caspian maritime border disputes. This wouldenable the development of larger offshore fields.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Upstream Projects
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Table: TAPI Timeline
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Downstream Players
Company Profile
Eni
ENOC/Dragon Oil
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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