Turkey Shipping Report Q1 2015
We are forecasting good single-digit percentage growth rates in Turkey's main ports in 2015, although thelargest, the Port of Izmir, held back by capacity constraints, will see somewhat lower growth, in the 2%-3%range. The strongest increases will be experienced at the ports of Ambarli and Haydarpasa.
Turkey's economic outlook was encouraging at the beginning of 2015. Two developments augured well.
First, monetary stimulus in Japan and Europe, despite expectations of a tightening stance by the US FederalReserve, was positive for Turkey, given that its externally-leveraged economy is very sensitive to changesin global liquidity conditions. Second, falling oil prices - down by 40% in the second half of 2014, promisedto help lower the domestic inflation rate and more importantly, boost net exports. Bearing these factors inmind, BMI is forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. We note however that this rate ofgrowth is slower than the 6% average achieved in 2010-2013, given that we believe the country isundergoing a structural rebalancing process.
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