Turkey Retail Report Q2 2015

Turkey Retail Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We retain a positive growth outlook for the Turkish retail sector in 2015 and beyond. Totalhousehold spending will be spurred by the growth of the economy and rising income of consumers. Weanticipate that 2015 and the next four years will mark the expansion of the largest retail chains into thecountry's periphery as well as the further intensification of competition in the cities.

Turkey continues to emerge as a centre of influence and economic gravity in South Eastern Europe.

However, it is set to face several external challenges in 2015. The political and economic crisis in Russia isaffecting most of the country's trade partners. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, Russia isTurkey's third largest origin of imports, with the total value of USD2.3bn of goods bought by Turkishcompanies and consumers in 2014. If the turmoil in Russia prolongs, the retailers in Turkey are likely to beforced to look for new trade partners. The eastern neighbours are unlikely to becoming adequate substitutes:

conflicts in Syria and Iraq have a negative impact on the country's economy, especially in the easternmostregions. Turkey, as the most-developed country in the northern part of the Middle East, serves as a refugefor Syrians and Iraqis fleeing their homes from the on-going conflicts in their respective countries. Inaddition, the plummeting oil price and the sharp shift in the dollar-euro exchange rate in late 2014 and early2015 is changing the dynamics of the retail market. While a large part of the industry exports to eurozonecountries and receives payments in euros, the consumers end up paying dollar-related prices in the retailmarket. Euro-related income and dollar-related expenses are likely to influence the household purchasingpower in 2015.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Retail Subsectors Forecast
Food And Drink
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Personal Care & Effects
Table: Personal Care Spending (Turkey 2012-2019)
Households Forecast
Table: Household Data, 2012-2019
Table: Labour Market Data, 2012-2019
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Babies (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Children (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Children (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Turkey 2012-2019)
Table: Population: Urban (Turkey 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Turkey 2011-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Retail Risk/Reward Index
Turkey Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Retail Formats
Retail Subsectors
Competitive Landscape
Shopping Centres
Mass Grocery Retail
Household Goods
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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