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Turkey Power Report Q1 2016

Turkey Power Report Q1 2016

BMI View: We continue to expect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE regionthis quarter. We foresee power demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels ofinvestment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improvingeconomic outlook. There is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as thegovernment continues to strive for greater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance onimports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourcedcoal leading the way. Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector iscomplicated by the county's precarious economic and political position.

Key Trends And Developments

We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period.While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation tohydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2024 we expect gas to account for 40.37%of total electricity generation (as opposed to 41.75% in 2015), coal to account for 24.81%, hydropower toaccount for 22.06% and non-hydro renewables to generate 12.08% of all electricity.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Turkey Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction
A Combustible Mix
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
CEE Power RRI
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
Turkey Power Projects Database
Table: Major Projects - Power
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
CEE Power Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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