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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q2 2015

BMI View: Turkey will be a net benefactor of falling oil prices enabling the country to increase both oiland gas imports at lower costs than previous years. A closer strategic relationship with Russia including anew pipeline and gas discounts, as well as the TANAP pipeline from Azerbaijan will move Turkey closer toits ambitions of being an energy hub. Exploration is expected to slow with TPAO drilling around half theplanned wells in 2015.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

Turkey will be a net benefactor from the fall in crude oil prices given its vast import bill. The country isdue to save in excess of USD15bn in 2015 over 2014.

We have revised up our short-term natural gas consumption forecast on lower oil-linked gas contractprices, a 6% discount on Russian gas and Energy Ministry plans to import more gas. We forecastconsumption growth of 9.5% in 2015.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Oil
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
Upstream Production - Gas
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
Refining
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
Trade - Oil
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2019-2024)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Oil&Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: High Risk, Low Reward
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: Above-Ground Risks Limit Caspian And Russia
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Turkey Offers Bright Spot In Weak Market
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
Turkey Upstream Index
Turkey Downstream Index
Market Overview
Turkey Energy Market Overview
Table: Turkey's Five-Year Energy Strategy
Regulatory Structure
Licensing Regime
Fiscal Regime
Table: Turkey Tax Regime
Energy Transit Hub
International Energy Relations
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Turkey
Service Stations
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
Gas Pipelines
Gas Storage
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Company Profile
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras)
OMV Petrol Ofisi
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Central and Eastern Europe Oil&Gas Regional Overview
CEE Oil Production: Russia Dominates, Caspian To Lead Growth
CEE Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
CEE Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
CEE Natural Gas Production: Russia, Caspian Gas Firing China
CEE Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
Global Industry Overview
Global Industry Overview - 5 Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
Appendix
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
Turkey - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
Turkey - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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