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Turkey Infrastructure Report Q2 2016

Turkey Infrastructure Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Factors which inform our long-term bullish view on Turkish infrastructure remain in play. Privatisation of assets and the use of PPPs, a supportive government and a geographic and demographic potential. However, over 2016 and 2017, we expect investment to slow - particularly in the residential and non-residential sectors - as currency depreciation, tightening credit and political risk remain key drags on sentiment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

We have downgraded our construction industry value real growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017, now 2.1% and 3.7% y-o-y respectively. This is lower than last quarter, following our revised estimation the industry grew by just 1% y-o-y.

Rail and road projects continue to see our forecasts for transport infrastructure growth remain buoyant at 4.8% in 2016. However, energy and utilities infrastructure growth has been lowered for 2016 on the back of the breakdown in relations between Moscow and Ankara and its impact on Turkey's nuclear and pipeline projects.

Driven by the contracts awarded under the government's USD500bn regeneration programme and continued strong building in Istanbul, the residential sector will perform well. We forecast real annual average growth of 2.8% over our 10-year forecast period, with the non-residential sector dragging down that figure.


BMI Industry View
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021)
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Turkey)
SWOT
Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
Turkey - Risks Align: Slower Construction Growth in 2016
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Turkey 2015-2025)
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Turkey 2015-2025)
Table: Major Transport Projects
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Turkey 2015-2025)
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
Table: Major Projects - Energy & Utilities
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Turkey 2015-2025)
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
Table: Key Projects Residential/Non-Residential
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Turkey - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Europe - CEE Infrastructure RRI: Heightened Risks Belie Growing Rewards
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
Competitive Landscape
Table: Turkey - Major Domestic Construction Players
Company Profile
Enka Insaat
Table: Enka Results, USDmn
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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