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Turkey Defence and Security Report 2017

BMI View: We maintain our forecast for steady growth in Turkish defence spending throughout ourforecast period to 2026 - facilitated by the government's shift towards a more expansionary and strongpolitical willingness to reduce dependence on imports from NATO countries amid rising tensions - anddriven by still-elevated risks of terrorism, separatism and political unrest. Coupled with strong governmentsupport and evolving international trade and industry collaboration partnerships, this will ensure continueddevelopment and expansion of Turkey's already-substantial defence sector - and thus Turkish defenceexports - over the coming decade.

Recent Analysis And Developments

The failed coup on July 15-16 2016 and the subsequent shift towards an authoritarian regime, whichculminated with the April 2017 referendum suppressing the position of Prime Minister and handing allthe executive powers to the president has significantly raised long-term political risks in Turkey.

President Erdogan continues to tighten its grip on power, but this is increasing the risk of backlash. Thisauthoritarian shift will also lead to a deterioration of Turkey's relations with NATO members, andsupport greater cooperation with non-NATO members such as Russia and Pakistan.

BMI Industry View
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2016-2021)
Defence Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2016-2021)
Table: Defence Expenditure (Turkey 2022-2026)
Defence Trade
Table: Turkey - Bilateral Defence Agreements
Industry Risk Reward Indices
Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Europe - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Defence Market Overview
Domestic Defence Sector
Domestic Defence Market
Armed Forces Overview
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Turkey 2008-2015)
Current Deployments
Table: Turkish Armed Forces - Overseas Deployments
Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Company Profile
Tübitak - Sage
Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index

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