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Tunisia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Picking Up, But No Boom In Near Term
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Gradual Reduction Of Fiscal Deficits Under IMF Programme
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Tightening Continues At Gradual Pace
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Tunisian Economy To 2027
Structural Reform Drive Positive; Political Risk Still Looming
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Bumpy Road Ahead Post-Municipal Elections
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Transition To Be Successful
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: TUNISIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Tunisia Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Tunisia's municipal elections will present an opportunity to rebuild trust in the country's young political institutions, especially in inland governorates suffering from high unemployment and years of under-investment. However, a low turnout would further widen the gap between the political sphere and the population, increasing the risks of renewed widespread protests.

We only expect a modest acceleration of growth in 2018, as the recov-ery of the tourism and agricultural sectors boosts private consumption and exports, and as structural reforms yield results in terms of fixed investment.

That said, growth is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels in the near term, as social instability weighs on investor perceptions and as high inflation dents households' purchasing power.

The government's budget deficits will see some small reductions over the coming years, but the pace will be severely constrained by popular pressure on the government to maintain social spending elevated.

The Central Bank of Tunisia will remain on a tightening path in 2018, in order to contain the depreciation of the dinar and inflationary pres-sures.


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