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Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Trinidad & Tobago's (T&T) economy will continue its modest recovery over the coming quarters, supported by rising natural gas production. However, non-energy sector growth will remain tepid, restricted by an overvalued exchange rate and private firms' poor access to credit.

The external accounts will continue to be weak over the coming quarters, as a real interest rate disadvantage vis-a-vis the US drives capital outflows. As a result, the pegged exchange rate will remain under pressure.

The fiscal deficit will most likely narrow in light of rebounding energy sector revenues. However, public financing needs will continue to strain the domestic financial system.

A competitive election in 2020 and the political and economic crisis in Venezuela will exacerbate political gridlock in 2019. We expect public support for the People's National Movement led government to dwindle due to weak economic growth, high crime and the effects of the Venezuelan refugee crisis. T&T's rela-tions with the US will be increasingly strained over the Venezuela crisis and Chinese investment.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth In Trinidad & Tobago Will Remain Weak Through 2019
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Subdued Inflation In Trinidad & Tobago Will Rein In Hawkish Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Trinidad And Tobago's Fiscal Consolidation To Slow
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (FY18/19)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2028
Government Policies Will Weigh On Long-Term Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, % OF GDP
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Political Tension In Trinidad And Tobago To Intensify Ahead Of Elections
Long-Term Political Outlook
Slower Growth Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
Operational Risk
Caribbean
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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