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Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Trinidad & Tobago's (T&T) economy will continue its modest recovery over the coming quarters, supported by rising natural gas production. However, non-energy sector growth will remain tepid, restricted by an overvalued exchange rate and private firms' poor access to credit.

The fiscal deficit will narrow in light of rebounding energy sector revenues. However, public financing needs will continue to strain the domestic financial system.

The external accounts will remain weak over the coming quarters, as a real interest rate disadvantage vis-a-vis the US drives capital outflows. As a result, the pegged exchange rate will remain under pressure.

Fiscal consolidation and other efforts at economic reform will be stymied by public and legislative opposition.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook I
Quarterly Outlook: Rebound Underway, But Imbalances Remain
Economic Growth Outlook II
Energy Sector Still Linchpin For Growth
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Capital Outflows Keep External Account Under Pressure
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
Rate Hikes To Continue
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Spending Restraint Supports Narrowing Deficit
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (FY16/17)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsCurrency Forecast
TTD: Capital Outflows Keep Peg Under Pressure
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2027
Government Policies Will Weigh On Long-Term Growth
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, % OF GDP
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Reintroduction Of Property Tax Underway
Long-Term Political Outlook
Economic Slowdown Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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