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Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Natural gas production gains will pull Trinidad & Tobago out of a prolonged recession over the coming quarters. However, non-energy sector activity will remain weak due to structural constraints that also limit medium-term growth prospects.

The fiscal deficit will narrow in light of rebounding energy sector revenues. However, public financing needs will continue to strain the domestic financial system.

The external accounts will remain weak over the coming quarters, as capital inflows are unlikely to cover financing needs.

Fiscal consolidation and other efforts at economic reform will be stymied by public and legislative opposition.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Energy Sector Shoulders Rebound
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Export Rebound Will Reduce Financing Needs
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Higher Rates Will Keep Credit Conditions Tight
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Falling Public Financing Needs Still Undermine Investment
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Currency Forecast
TTD: Peg In Place For Now
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2027
Oil & Gas Dependence Will Weigh On Growth Outlook
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Property Tax Effort Shows Government Commitment
Long-Term Political Outlook
Economic Slowdown Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Caribbean
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Signs Of Weakness, But Global Expansion Broadening
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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