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Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Trinidad and Tobago Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Trinidad & Tobago's (T&T) economy will continue its modest recovery over the coming quarters, supported by rising natural gas production However, non-energy sector growth will remain tepid, restricted by an overvalued exchange rate and private firms' poor access to credit

The external accounts will remain weak over the coming quarters, as a real interest rate disadvantage vis-a-vis the US drives capital outflows As a result, the pegged exchange rate will remain under pressure

The fiscal deficit will most likely narrow in light of rebounding energy sector revenues However, public financing needs will continue to strain the domestic financial system

Moreover, flooding across Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) will complicate the government's efforts to contain expenditure growth in its 2019 budget Relief efforts and public pressure stemming from the flooding will raise downside risks to our fiscal forecasts

Declining public support will sap the government's willingness to pursue other significant economic reforms, such as devaluing the exchange rate Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Q1 2019


Executive Summary
Core Views
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Sector Still The Bright Spot For Economy
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Natural Gas Exports Offer Support To Trinidadian External Account
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
Differential With US Will Drive Trinidad & Tobago Rate Hikes
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Trinidad & Tobago To Loosen Fiscal Austerity In 2019
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (FY16/17)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
TTD: Downside Pressures Remain Significant
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2027
Government Policies Will Weigh On Long-Term Growth
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE, % OF GDP
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Severe Flooding In T&T Undermines Budget Efforts
Long-Term Political Outlook
Economic Slowdown Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: TRINIDAD & TOBAGO – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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