Thailand Renewables Report Q4 2015
BMI View: Despite the political turmoil leading to a military coup in May 2014 there are signs that ourprevious forecast still holds in place as the ruling regime sees solar energy projects as key to attractingforeign investors scared off by recent events. We have further revised upwards solar energy production inour 10-year forecast. In 2015 non-hydropower renewable generation will expand by around 11.8%, withgrowth primarily in solar and wind generation. Growth in solar will be driven by commercial- andresidential-scale projects, with companies such as Thailand's SPCG maintaining a large pipeline ofcommercial solar projects. Even though SPCG has already completed 36 solar power projects with acombined capacity of around 260MW over the past four years, the pipeline remains large. We note thatThailand's new government is in the midst of revamping the privileges and regulations for the renewablessector. In March the government shifted from PPA agreements to Feed-in-Tariffs. The new system willprovide more financial stability and longer terms for investors.
We largely maintain our 2015 forecasts for non-hydropower renewables generation and capacity inThailand this quarter as our assumptions remain relevant. Growth in 2015 will be driven largely by the solarsector, with the wind and biomass sectors playing second fiddle. We have however reduced our overallrenewable growth with a further increase in solar compensating a reduction in wind and biomass energyproduction. We forecast non-hydropower renewables generation to grow by an average of 8.2% per annumbetween 2015 and 2024 against our previous 11.2% forecast. Our sanguine long-term outlook can beattributed to the unsustainable nature of the country's current energy mix and the increasingly attractiveregulatory conditions for renewables.
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