Thailand Insurance Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We continue to see Thailand as a market that, in world terms, is medium-sized and quite rapidlygrowing. Over the coming years, the life sector will continue to expand as the leading, and strong,companies provide new products to existing clients. Higher volumes and prices in the motor vehicleinsurance sub-sector should underpin a double digit expansion in non-life premiums.
Latest Updates And Forecasts
We have been surprised at the strength of growth in premiums that has been reported by the leading lifeinsurance companies in relation to 2015 and note that our estimates for the year may be on the low side.
The economic slowdown in Thailand has, apparently, had little impact on the business of the leading lifeinsurance companies. Looking forward, though, we have revised our forecasts down slightly - in order torecognise a political and economic environment that is still difficult. We look for life premiums to rise byaround 9% annually through much of the forecast period. Among wealthier Thai households, the generaltrend in disposable income will be upwards. The life insurers should be able to exploit this by makingadditional sales to existing clients.
A major change this quarter is that we are taking a much more sanguine view of sales of motor vehiclesover the forecast period. We think that the number of vehicles in the national fleet will grow by around9% annually through the forecast period, resulting in an corresponding expansion in volumes for theleading companies in the motor insurance sub-sector. Given that motor insurance should account foraround 62% of all non-life premiums written in Thailand in 2016, this is important for the segment as awhole. We have also taken the view that the leading motor vehicle insurers will be able to achieve someincrease in pricing as well. Consequently, we now envisage that non-life premiums will rise by around11% annually.
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