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Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Thailand Country Risk Report Q1 2019

We maintain our relatively positive view on Thailand's real GDP growth outlook over the coming years, in spite of the risks posed by the return to elections in 2019 We forecast the Thai economy to grow by an average of 3 5% over the next five years as the country's new constitution should provide policy continuity regardless of the election outcome, and ambitious infrastructure projects are likely to support investment spending

We are forecasting the Bank of Thailand to remain on hold for the rest of 2018, and to hike its policy rate once by 25 basis points (bps) to 1 75% in 2019, as it looks to rein in rising inflation


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Government Policies To Support Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS IN 2017
TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Hawkish Tilt Poses Risks To Rate Hold Forecast
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
FY2018/19 Budget Negative For Economic Development
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Thailand Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
Baht To Weaken Due To Hawkish Fed And Heightened Election Risks
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Thai Economy To 2027
Political Uncertainty The Main Growth Obstacle
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Pro-Military Party To Benefit From Tight Political Restrictions
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Uncertainty Ahead Despite Tight Military Grip
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
Market Size and Utilities
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Inflation And Policy Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: THAILAND – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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