Market Research Logo

Tanzania Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Tanzania Country Risk Report Q4 2019

At Fitch Solutions, we believe that Tanzanian economic growth will slow to 5.2% in 2019 and 5.4% 2020, from an estimated 6.7% in 2018.

There will be three main headwinds to growth: the poor agricultural outlook, weaker overseas investment in Tanzania and an increasingly challenging global macroeconomic backdrop.

Rising inflation will mainly reflect strong food price growth, due to supply shortages caused by poor weather conditions.

The Tanzanian shilling looks set to gradually depreciate against the US dollar over the next few quarters. This trend will reflect slowing Tanzanian growth, rising inflation weighing on real interest rates and the country's deteriorating attractiveness to investors.

The arrest of journalist Erick Kabendera will cast further doubts over the rule of law in Tanzania over the coming months, garnering negative press coverage in Western media outlets.

The use of authoritarian measures by President John Magufuli's government will likely increase in the run up to the country's next election, due in October 2020.

Key Risks

Recent decisions and policies passed by President John Magufuli's ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party will further damage relations with donors and dampen investor confidence. The possibility of sharp policy shifts which could harm the business environment means that risks to Tanzania's economy are weighted to the downside.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Economic Growth To Be Sluggish In 2019 And 2020
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Food Supply Issues To Push Up Inflation
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Fiscal Deficit To Widen As October 2020 Election Approaches
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
TZS: Gradual Depreciation Ahead For The Shilling
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
Tanzania Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Contents10-Year Forecast
Long-Term Outlook Bright, With Regulatory Headwinds
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Doubts About Press Freedom To Further Hit Business Environment
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
CCM Rule Will Sustain Stability
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Labour Costs
TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF THE WORKFORCE
Legal Environment
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
Global Macro Outlook
Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: TANZANIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report