Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q4 2017
BMI View: Our forecasts for the Tanzanian agribusiness sector have seen a number of changes since our last quarterly update, with the majority of the revisions coming to the upside - a move which further supports our positive view of the sector in the country. In particular, we point to an upwards revision in our forecasts for both coffee and corn production and a revision upwards in rice consumption. In spite of a downward revision in our forecasts for corn production in four out of the five years in our forecast period, all of our average growth rates across our five-year forecast for the crops we track are now positive. More specifically, we continue to see the Tanzanian coffee industry struggling over the medium term, however, renewed government support for the sector has provided hope that it can recover over the longer term. The corn industry, meanwhile, will continue to benefit from solid demand from domestic and export markets, while rising income levels will stimulate rice consumption. The Tanzanian sugar sector will see limited production growth in the next few years, largely due to the fact that Tanzania scores poorly on productivity measures compared to its regional neighbours. In addition, we believe that while sugar prices will be supported across 2017, they are likely to take a move lower over the medium term as global supply will recover significantly in the ongoing 2017/18 season.
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