Tajikistan Power Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Tajikistan will rely overwhelmingly on hydroelectric power generation during our 10-year forecast period, but will suffer from power generation shortfalls over the next decade, due to headwinds to diversification into other sectors, notably gas. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop - with China slowing down, Russia experiencing poor economic performance and commodity prices falling - underscores our muted view this quarter. Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The devaluation of the Kazakh tenge puts pressure on the currencies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In particular, the Kyrgyz and Tajik economies are likely to suffer the most, as they rely heavily on remittances from Kazakhstan and a poorly performing Russia.
The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan strongly oppose developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences.
In July 2015, the European Investment Bank granted a EUR70mn (USD79.2mn) loan to build a 500kV, 477km-long transmission line that will transfer hydroelectric power between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. • In September 2014, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attended the inauguration of the second unit at the Sangtuda Hydroelectric power plant on the Vakhsh River. The 110MW unit was developed by the Iranian company Sangob, and revenues from the project will be transferred to Iran for the first 12 years of power generation.
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