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Tajikistan Power Report Q2 2016

Tajikistan Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Tajikistan will rely overwhelmingly on hydroelectric power generation during our 10-year forecast period, but will suffer from power generation shortfalls over the next decade, due to headwinds to diversification into other sectors, notably gas. The deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop - with China slowing down, Russia experiencing poor economic performance and commodity prices falling - underscores our muted view this quarter. Latest Updates And Structural Trends

The devaluation of the Kazakh tenge puts pressure on the currencies of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In particular, the Kyrgyz and Tajik economies are likely to suffer the most, as they rely heavily on remittances from Kazakhstan and a poorly performing Russia.

The development of Kyrgyzstani and Tajikistani hydropower will remain a contentious issue in Central Asia, as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan strongly oppose developments due to worries that the downstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers will suffer negative consequences.

In July 2015, the European Investment Bank granted a EUR70mn (USD79.2mn) loan to build a 500kV, 477km-long transmission line that will transfer hydroelectric power between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. • In September 2014, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attended the inauguration of the second unit at the Sangtuda Hydroelectric power plant on the Vakhsh River. The 110MW unit was developed by the Iranian company Sangob, and revenues from the project will be transferred to Iran for the first 12 years of power generation.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2021)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Tajikistan Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Tajikistan Power Forecast Scenario
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
Tajikistan Industry Risk/Reward Index
Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Tajikistan - Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Barki Tojik
Regional Overview
Europe - CEE Power: Affordable Coal To Trump Renewables
Table: Turkey - Ambitious Renewables Targets
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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