BMI View: Tajikistan's power outlook remains anaemic. Falling economic growth, fiscal constraints andinefficient management of finances - including poor distribution of state resources and subsidies toconsumers - mean that overall growth in generation will run at an average of less than 1.0% per annumover the next ten years. Government plans to boost hydropower generation in order to facilitate powerexports will be marred by obstacles, due to lack of financing for new power generating infrastructure andsecurity threats to mooted electricity interconnections, although for a commencement of work on the3,600MW Rogun project creates cautious hope that this massive venture may finally get off the ground.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
In October 2016, detonations took place on the bed of the Vakhsh River, to block the main flow andprepare the ground for the 3,600MW Rogun hydroelectric dam. The ceremony was attended by PresidentEmomali Rahmon. However, we remain cautious about the prospects for its completion - even on a tenyearview - due to funding constraints and opposition from Uzbekistan. For now, we do not incorporatethe project into our forecast trajectory, which runs to 2026.