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Tajikistan Power Report 2017

Tajikistan Power Report 2017

BMI View: Tajikistan's power outlook remains anaemic. Falling economic growth, fiscal constraints andinefficient management of finances - including poor distribution of state resources and subsidies toconsumers - mean that overall growth in generation will run at an average of less than 1.0% per annumover the next ten years. Government plans to boost hydropower generation in order to facilitate powerexports will be marred by obstacles, due to lack of financing for new power generating infrastructure andsecurity threats to mooted electricity interconnections, although for a commencement of work on the3,600MW Rogun project creates cautious hope that this massive venture may finally get off the ground.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

In October 2016, detonations took place on the bed of the Vakhsh River, to block the main flow andprepare the ground for the 3,600MW Rogun hydroelectric dam. The ceremony was attended by PresidentEmomali Rahmon. However, we remain cautious about the prospects for its completion - even on a tenyearview - due to funding constraints and opposition from Uzbekistan. For now, we do not incorporatethe project into our forecast trajectory, which runs to 2026.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Tajikistan 2016-2022)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Tajikistan Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2016-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Tajikistan 2021-2026)
Tajikistan Power Forecast Scenario
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2021-2026)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2021-2026)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2021-2026)
Transmission, Distribution and Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2015-2020)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Tajikistan 2021-2026)
Industry Risk Reward Index
CEE Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Regulation And Competition
Pricing
Tajikistan - Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Barki Tojik
Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Power Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Indicators - Explanation and Sources

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