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Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Telecommunications Report 2017

BMI View: We maintain a cautious forecast for both the Tajikistan and the Kyrgyzstan telecommunicationsmarkets in our 2017 update. We have made some revisions to the forecast to account for latest mobilemarket data from H1 2017. Mobile market growth in the first six months in both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstanwas lacklustre owing to inactive SIM discounting in Tajikistan and, to a lesser extent in Kyrgyzstan, wherethe market appears to be becoming saturated as it matures. 3G/4G LTE will be the medium-term growthdriver, but technological uptake will be hindered by low consumer spending powers and challengingmacroeconomic prospects over the short- and medium-terms.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

The Tajikistan mobile market ended H117 with a total of 7.84mn subscribers, a drop of 11.7% y-o-y. Themobile market contracted by 19% in 2016, the result of a government-imposed SIM registrationprogramme. Looking ahead, we anticipate organic mobile market subscriber growth to be muted as themarket nears maturity. By the end of our forecast period in 2021, we expect the total number of mobilesubscribers to reach 8.23mn.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Telecoms
Industry Forecast
Kyrgyzstan
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kyrgyzstan 2014-2021)
Tajikistan
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tajikistan 2014-2021)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2017
Tajikistan Risk/Reward Index
Kyrgyzstan Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Kyrgyzstan
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Pay-TV/Convergence
Tajikistan
Market Drivers & Trends
Mobile
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Regulatory Development
Industry Risks
Main Development: Telia Company Sells Tcell
Additional Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Telecoms Sector
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market Overview
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market Overview
Company Profile
Kyrgyztelecom
Tajiktelecom
Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)
VimpelCom
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tajikistan 1990-2025)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kyrgyzstan 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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