BMI View: We maintain a cautious forecast for both the Tajikistan and the Kyrgyzstan telecommunicationsmarkets in our 2017 update. We have made some revisions to the forecast to account for latest mobilemarket data from H1 2017. Mobile market growth in the first six months in both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstanwas lacklustre owing to inactive SIM discounting in Tajikistan and, to a lesser extent in Kyrgyzstan, wherethe market appears to be becoming saturated as it matures. 3G/4G LTE will be the medium-term growthdriver, but technological uptake will be hindered by low consumer spending powers and challengingmacroeconomic prospects over the short- and medium-terms.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The Tajikistan mobile market ended H117 with a total of 7.84mn subscribers, a drop of 11.7% y-o-y. Themobile market contracted by 19% in 2016, the result of a government-imposed SIM registrationprogramme. Looking ahead, we anticipate organic mobile market subscriber growth to be muted as themarket nears maturity. By the end of our forecast period in 2021, we expect the total number of mobilesubscribers to reach 8.23mn.