Taiwan Water Report Q1 2015
BMI View: This quarter we have upgraded and expanded our water forecasts. We now cover extraction bysource (including rivers and rain water), Mains and non mains consumption, losses and non revenuewaters. As the reservoir capacity expands, we anticipate non mains water consumption to increasesubstantially, though mains and household demand shall taper off. Without more rigorous regulations, billcollections, and sustained investment into the networks, we expect losses to remain high, which could putadditional pressures on Taiwan's strained water resources.
Increasing anti-China sentiment among Taiwanese voters has raised the DPP's chances of forming the nextgovernment in 2016. China will hence be unwilling to allow the DPP to reap the economic fruits of theKMT's labour, especially given cool historical ties between Beijing and the DPP. This will entail strongrisks of a reversal in the warm cross-strait ties that Ma has built up since 2008, consequently altering thecountry's economic trajectory. China is unlikely to push through with any major policies as it would be leftunsure if Ma's successor would honour the agreements. Investors could therefore wait for greater politicalclarity before taking on new construction projects. Furthermore, most governments typically put on holdkey decisions on large-scale infrastructure projects (such as project awards and approvals) until majorelections are concluded. This could have significant implications for the water sector project pipeline. Inaddition, the weakening of relations between Taiwan and China would, in our view, result in thecancellation of the proposed water imports. Although Taiwan would be able to collect more water from rainrunoff over the next few years as additional reservoirs are completed, this would still put a significant dentin the country's total water resources.
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