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Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Despite a lower oil price environment, rising energy efficiency and import constraints willprevent weaker prices from increasing oil and gas consumption. We also note Taiwan's shares in theregional refined fuels exports market will come under growing competition from refining capacityexpansions in the region's emerging economies, which will moderate their need for imports in themedium to long term.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

As of January 1 2016, Taiwan's state-owned CPC Corporation officially closed its Kaohsiung oilrefinery. This has reduced the country's overall crude oil refining capacity by 16.8% to 1.1mn b/d.

Taiwan's refined fuels consumption will remain weak over the next two years, contracting by 1.5% from937,170b/d in 2016 to 923,160b/d in 2018. This will be the result of subdued economic performance, asharp slowdown in car sales growth and rising fuel efficiency among the country's vehicle fleet.

According to Platts reports in late 2015, Taiwan's private refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corporationplans to double 10ppm sulfur gasoil exports to Philippines from 2016, as the country switches to Euro 4-compliant standards.

The decline in Taiwan's refining capacity is expected to lower net crude oil imports by 5% (year-on-year)to 935,050b/d in 2016. We expect the net imports of crude to continue declining across our forecastperiod to around 901,000b/d in 2025.

We hold our previous forecast that Taiwan to become a small net refined products importer in2016. However, the imports of refined products will remain small, rising to 8,590b/d in 2025.

We estimate that Taiwan imported 16.7bcm of gas in 2015 and forecast the imports to remain stable in2016 and 2017. The expansion of the LNG import capacity in 2018 and 2022 will lift the country's gasimport volumes to 19.9bcm by 2025.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2020-2025)
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Asia - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Persistent Oil Price Weakness Underpins Bearish Outlook
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Projection For Weaker Economic Growth Undermines India's Scores
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Index
Taiwan Upstream Index - Overview
Taiwan Upstream Index - Rewards
Taiwan Upstream Index - Risks
Taiwan Downstream Index - Overview
Market Overview
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Taiwan - Key Tax Rates
Licensing Regime
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Operational Refineries In Taiwan
Service Stations
Oil Storage
LNG Terminals
Table: Operating LNG Terminals In Taiwan
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC)
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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