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Syria Defence and Security Report 2015

BMI View: We forecast Syrian defence expenditure to expand modestly over the next five years, reachingUSD2.2bn by 2019. This figure remains small on a global comparison - due to the Syrian economy'scontinued deterioration amid elevated levels of instability - however, as a percentage of overall GDP, themilitary budget makes up a high 3.8% - reflecting the continued demand for funding of the regime'soffensives against rebel forces. As the country does not maintain a significant domestic defence industry(and investment into the development of local military manufacturing capabilities is unlikely to beforthcoming amid the ongoing civil war), we expect the government to remain wholly reliant on defenceimports in coming years.

Over 2015, BMI forecast Syrian defence expenditure to reach USD2.0bn. This represents an increase of4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), and makes up 3.9% of overall GDP, reflecting the continued demand for fundingof the regime's military operations against Syria's rebel forces, which have made significant territorial gainssince the beginning of the year. That said, on a global comparison - and especially in a regional context, thefigure remains small. This is due to the Syrian economy's continued deterioration amid elevated levels ofinstability, with overall GDP forecast to contract by as much as 11.7% y-o-y over the course of 2015.

BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure (Syria 2012-2019)
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Syria 2005-2012)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Syria 2012-2019)
Defence Exports And Imports
Table: Defence Imports (Syria 2012-2019)
Table: Defence Exports (Syria 2012-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Industry Risk Reward Index
Syria Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Middle East and North Africa - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Syria Defence Market Overview
Domestic Defence Sector
Domestic Defence Market
International Partnerships And Defence Agreements
Table: Syria - Defence Agreements
Syria Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Regional Overview
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
Global Industry Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Defence Risk Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index

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