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Sweden Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Sweden Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, but the economy is set to cool slightly from well-above trend levels.

The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-16 will lead to higher economic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market, and domestic political stability.

The Swedish political scene is splintering, and new realignments took place following the 2018 general election. The uncertainty over future policy formation will continue to weigh on the country's political risk score.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Falling Production Expectations In Sweden Point To Stronger Slowdown Ahead
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS (2017)
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS (2017)
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
Swedish Krona To Depreciate Amid Protracted Trade Tensions
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Swedish Economy To 2028
Well-Positioned For The Long Term
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Sweden Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Confidence And Supply Agreement In Sweden To Remain Stable
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Strong Institutions Underpin Long Term Political Stability
Operational Risk
Developed States
TABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX
TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEX
TABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX
Global Macro Outlook
Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SWEDEN – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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