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Sweden Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Sweden Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, but the economy is set to cool slightly from well-above trend levels.

The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-2016 will lead to higher economic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market and domestic political stability.

The Swedish political scene is splintering and new realignments look likely following the 2018 general election. The uncertainty over future policy formation will continue to weigh on Fitch Solutions' political risk score for the country.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Internal Consumption Will Ensure Above-Trend Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS (2017)
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS (2017)
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
Monetary Policy
Improving Outlook Will Lead Riksbank To Hike In Q418
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Sweden Country Risk Q4 2018Contents10-Year Forecast
The Swedish Economy To 2027
Well Positioned For The Long Term
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
The Swedish 2018 Elections: Three Scenarios
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Strong Institutions Underpin Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: SWEDEN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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