Sweden Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Sweden will remain a growth outperformer among developed states, but the economy is set to cool slightly from well-above trend levels.
The surge in migrant inflows in 2015-2016 will lead to higher eco-nomic growth over the medium term, but will present challenges to the fiscal accounts, the labour market and domestic political stability.
The Swedish political scene is splintering and new realignments look likely following the 2018 general election. The uncertainty over future policy formation will continue to weigh on our Political Risk score for the country.
Executive Summary Core Views Major Forecast Changes Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Residential Investment To Pull Down Growth GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORT DESTINATIONS AND GOODS EXPORTS (2017) TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORT SOURCES AND GOODS IMPORTS (2017) TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE Monetary Policy Riksbank On Hold Until Mid-2019 Monetary Policy Framework TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTSStructural Fiscal Position TABLE: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Swedish Economy To 2027 Well-Positioned For The Long Term TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic PoliticsPolicy Paralysis To Persist Post-Election TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW Long-Term Political Outlook Strong Institutions Underpin Stability Chapter 4: Operational Risk Developed StatesTABLE: LABOUR MARKET RISK INDEX TABLE: LOGISTICS RISK INDEXTABLE: CRIME AND SECURITY RISK INDEX TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK INDEX Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: SWEDEN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS