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Swaziland Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Swaziland Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

The Swazi economy will contract in 2018 on the back of headwinds for the external sector. Domestic demand will also remain weak given that the government will likely be forced to scale back expansion- ary public spending plans as revenues continue to come in below targets.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Contract In 2018
The Swazi economy will contract in 2018 on the back of headwinds for the external sector. Domestic demand will also remain weak
given that the government will likely be forced to scale back expansionary public spending plans as revenues continue to come in
below targets
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
Declining SACU Receipts Will Weaken External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Swaziland Economy To 2027
Economic Growth Will Slowly Accelerate
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Political Suppression Will Raise Social Unrest
Swaziland will see discontent with the ruling monarchy rise over the next decade increasing pressure, both domestically and
internationally, for greater political freedom. Public anger over rampant poverty, high HIV/AIDS and repression of the opposition will
remain a key threat to stability in the country
EM Growth To Accelerate In 2018 While DMs Plateau
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y

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