Swaziland Country Risk Report Q1 2020
We have modestly revised up our estimate for real GDP growth to come in at 1.4% in 2019, from 0.8% previously, owing to low inflationary pressures.
We maintain our 1.4% forecast for 2020.
Despite the upward revision for 2019, growth will remain well below the 2.8% average registered between 2008 and 2018 in the coming years.
Growing protests and social unrest in Eswatini will exert added pressure on the absolute monarchy of Eswatini to liberalise the political environment in the country.
We expect to see only piecemeal moves towards a more liberal political system in the coming years.
However, we see almost no chance of a full democratic transition or an end to monarchic rule in the country in our 10-year forecast period to 2028.
Eswatini remains susceptible to adverse weather conditions and negative weather shocks could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine real growth.
The government's weak fiscal position poses risks to debt sustainability.
Rampant poverty, suppression of political opposition and weak democratic processes could see social unrest rise over the next several years.
- Executive Summary
- Core Views
- Key Risks
- Country Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Index
- Political Risk Index
- Economic – SWOT Analysis
- Political – SWOT Analysis
- Economic Outlook
- Economic Growth Outlook
- Sluggish Growth Ahead In Eswatini
- GDP By Expenditure Outlook
- TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
- TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
- TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
- TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
- Outlook On External Position
- TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
- TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
- TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
- Monetary Policy Framework
- TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
- Structural Fiscal Position
- TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
- TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
- 10-Year Forecast
- Eswatini's Economy To 2028
- Subdued Growth Ahead Over The Coming Decade
- TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
- THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Eswatini Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Piecemeal Liberal Reforms The Most Realistic Course For Eswatini
- TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Instability Risks Rising
- Global Macro Outlook
- Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
- TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
- TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
- Index Tables
- TABLE: ESWATINI – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS