Swaziland Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Swaziland Country Risk Report Q1 2020

We have modestly revised up our estimate for real GDP growth to come in at 1.4% in 2019, from 0.8% previously, owing to low inflationary pressures.

We maintain our 1.4% forecast for 2020.

Despite the upward revision for 2019, growth will remain well below the 2.8% average registered between 2008 and 2018 in the coming years.

Growing protests and social unrest in Eswatini will exert added pressure on the absolute monarchy of Eswatini to liberalise the political environment in the country.

We expect to see only piecemeal moves towards a more liberal political system in the coming years.

However, we see almost no chance of a full democratic transition or an end to monarchic rule in the country in our 10-year forecast period to 2028.

Key Risks

Eswatini remains susceptible to adverse weather conditions and negative weather shocks could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine real growth.

The government's weak fiscal position poses risks to debt sustainability.

Rampant poverty, suppression of political opposition and weak democratic processes could see social unrest rise over the next several years.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Sluggish Growth Ahead In Eswatini
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
Eswatini's Economy To 2028
Subdued Growth Ahead Over The Coming Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Eswatini Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Piecemeal Liberal Reforms The Most Realistic Course For Eswatini
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Instability Risks Rising
Global Macro Outlook
Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: ESWATINI – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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